12:00-13:30, Wednesday, 19 June, 2013
Paul Sheard, Global Chief Economist
Standard& Poor's Ratings Services
"The BOJ's Reflation Bid: Why It Should Work But How It Could Go Wrong."
The psychological impact of Prime Minister Abe's stimulative economic policy is fading, with the Tokyo stock market making corrections to its earlier sharp gains and higher bond yields prompting some banks to raise mortgage rates.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is trying to achieve the bank's 2% price stability target in about two years with aggressive monetary easing but some economists remain skeptical about the timing. And while the BOJ board believes that the economy is still on a path toward the target, a few members think Japan's consumer inflation rate may fail to rise to 2% by fiscal 2015.
BOJ board member Ryuzo Miyao dropped a hint on the inflation target during his speech at the FCCJ on May 28. "While the target is pinpointed at 2%, it doesn't mean that any deviation from 2% is unacceptable. Rather, the inflation rate has to be maintained averagely and stably," he said.
To discuss the prospects for ending years of deflation, Paul Sheard, chief global economist and head of global economics and research at Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, will present make a luncheon presentation on "The BOJ's Reflation Bid: Why It Should Work But How It Could Go Wrong."
Previously, Sheard was global chief economist and head of economic research at Nomura Securities. He was also at Lehman Brothers as Asia Chief Economist and was head of Japan equity investments at Baring Asset Management. He has held faculty positions at Osaka University and the Australian National University, and visiting positions at Stanford University and the Bank of Japan.